FT: Generar modelos con Gradient Boosting mejorando greedy

src/config/models_config.py

@@ -42,6 +42,20 @@ class ModelConfig:
                     "data_function": "fetch_data_legacy",
                     "description": "Modelo legacy compatible",
                     "required_params": ["hour", "dow", "total_events"]
+                },
+                "demand_advanced": {
+                    "module": "models_train",
+                    "train_function": "train_demand_model_advanced",
+                    "data_function": "fetch_data",
+                    "description": "Modelo avanzado de demanda con feature engineering y Gradient Boosting optimizado",
+                    "required_params": ["h3", "week", "dow", "hour"]
+                },
+                "nulo_advanced": {
+                    "module": "models_train",
+                    "train_function": "train_nulo_model_advanced",
+                    "data_function": "fetch_data",
+                    "description": "Modelo avanzado de nulos con feature engineering y mejor manejo de desbalance",
+                    "required_params": ["h3", "week", "dow", "hour"]
                 }
             }
         }

src/core/model_evaluation.py

@@ -0,0 +1,271 @@
+"""
+Módulo de evaluación de modelos de Machine Learning.
+
+Proporciona funciones para evaluar modelos de regresión y clasificación,
+comparar múltiples modelos y realizar validación cruzada.
+"""
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from typing import Dict, List, Any, Tuple
+from sklearn.metrics import (
+    mean_absolute_error, 
+    mean_squared_error, 
+    r2_score,
+    accuracy_score,
+    precision_score,
+    recall_score,
+    f1_score,
+    roc_auc_score,
+    confusion_matrix,
+    classification_report
+)
+from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score, cross_validate
+import warnings
+
+def evaluate_regression_model(model, X_test, y_test, model_name: str = "Model") -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Evalúa un modelo de regresión con múltiples métricas.
+    
+    Args:
+        model: Modelo entrenado con método predict()
+        X_test: Características de prueba
+        y_test: Valores objetivo de prueba
+        model_name: Nombre del modelo para el reporte
+    
+    Returns:
+        Diccionario con métricas de evaluación
+    """
+    try:
+        # Realizar predicciones
+        y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
+        
+        # Calcular métricas
+        mae = mean_absolute_error(y_test, y_pred)
+        mse = mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)
+        rmse = np.sqrt(mse)
+        r2 = r2_score(y_test, y_pred)
+        
+        # Calcular error porcentual medio absoluto (MAPE)
+        # Evitar división por cero
+        mask = y_test != 0
+        mape = np.mean(np.abs((y_test[mask] - y_pred[mask]) / y_test[mask])) * 100 if mask.any() else np.inf
+        
+        results = {
+            "model_name": model_name,
+            "mae": float(mae),
+            "mse": float(mse),
+            "rmse": float(rmse),
+            "r2": float(r2),
+            "mape": float(mape) if mape != np.inf else None,
+            "n_samples": len(y_test)
+        }
+        
+        return results
+        
+    except Exception as e:
+        return {
+            "model_name": model_name,
+            "error": str(e)
+        }
+
+def evaluate_classification_model(model, X_test, y_test, model_name: str = "Model", 
+                                 average: str = 'binary') -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Evalúa un modelo de clasificación con múltiples métricas.
+    
+    Args:
+        model: Modelo entrenado con métodos predict() y predict_proba()
+        X_test: Características de prueba
+        y_test: Etiquetas de prueba
+        model_name: Nombre del modelo para el reporte
+        average: Tipo de promedio para métricas ('binary', 'macro', 'weighted')
+    
+    Returns:
+        Diccionario con métricas de evaluación
+    """
+    try:
+        # Realizar predicciones
+        y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
+        
+        # Calcular métricas básicas
+        accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)
+        precision = precision_score(y_test, y_pred, average=average, zero_division=0)
+        recall = recall_score(y_test, y_pred, average=average, zero_division=0)
+        f1 = f1_score(y_test, y_pred, average=average, zero_division=0)
+        
+        results = {
+            "model_name": model_name,
+            "accuracy": float(accuracy),
+            "precision": float(precision),
+            "recall": float(recall),
+            "f1_score": float(f1),
+            "n_samples": len(y_test)
+        }
+        
+        # Calcular AUC-ROC si el modelo tiene predict_proba
+        if hasattr(model, 'predict_proba'):
+            try:
+                y_proba = model.predict_proba(X_test)
+                # Para clasificación binaria
+                if y_proba.shape[1] == 2:
+                    auc_roc = roc_auc_score(y_test, y_proba[:, 1])
+                    results["auc_roc"] = float(auc_roc)
+            except Exception as e:
+                warnings.warn(f"No se pudo calcular AUC-ROC: {str(e)}")
+        
+        # Matriz de confusión
+        cm = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred)
+        results["confusion_matrix"] = cm.tolist()
+        
+        return results
+        
+    except Exception as e:
+        return {
+            "model_name": model_name,
+            "error": str(e)
+        }
+
+def compare_models(models: Dict[str, Any], X_test, y_test, 
+                  model_type: str = 'regression') -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """
+    Compara múltiples modelos y genera un reporte.
+    
+    Args:
+        models: Diccionario {nombre_modelo: modelo_entrenado}
+        X_test: Características de prueba
+        y_test: Valores/etiquetas de prueba
+        model_type: 'regression' o 'classification'
+    
+    Returns:
+        DataFrame con comparación de modelos
+    """
+    results = []
+    
+    for name, model in models.items():
+        if model_type == 'regression':
+            metrics = evaluate_regression_model(model, X_test, y_test, name)
+        elif model_type == 'classification':
+            metrics = evaluate_classification_model(model, X_test, y_test, name)
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f"model_type debe ser 'regression' o 'classification', recibido: {model_type}")
+        
+        results.append(metrics)
+    
+    df = pd.DataFrame(results)
+    
+    # Ordenar por métrica principal
+    if model_type == 'regression':
+        df = df.sort_values('rmse', ascending=True)
+    else:
+        df = df.sort_values('f1_score', ascending=False)
+    
+    return df
+
+def cross_validate_model(model, X, y, cv: int = 5, 
+                        model_type: str = 'regression') -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Realiza validación cruzada con múltiples métricas.
+    
+    Args:
+        model: Modelo a evaluar
+        X: Características completas
+        y: Valores/etiquetas completos
+        cv: Número de folds para validación cruzada
+        model_type: 'regression' o 'classification'
+    
+    Returns:
+        Diccionario con resultados de validación cruzada
+    """
+    if model_type == 'regression':
+        scoring = {
+            'mae': 'neg_mean_absolute_error',
+            'mse': 'neg_mean_squared_error',
+            'r2': 'r2'
+        }
+    elif model_type == 'classification':
+        scoring = {
+            'accuracy': 'accuracy',
+            'precision': 'precision',
+            'recall': 'recall',
+            'f1': 'f1',
+            'roc_auc': 'roc_auc'
+        }
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"model_type debe ser 'regression' o 'classification'")
+    
+    try:
+        cv_results = cross_validate(model, X, y, cv=cv, scoring=scoring, 
+                                   return_train_score=True, n_jobs=-1)
+        
+        results = {
+            'cv_folds': cv,
+            'n_samples': len(y)
+        }
+        
+        # Procesar resultados
+        for metric_name, scores in cv_results.items():
+            if metric_name.startswith('test_'):
+                metric = metric_name.replace('test_', '')
+                # Convertir métricas negativas a positivas
+                if metric in ['mae', 'mse']:
+                    scores = -scores
+                
+                results[f'{metric}_mean'] = float(np.mean(scores))
+                results[f'{metric}_std'] = float(np.std(scores))
+                results[f'{metric}_scores'] = scores.tolist()
+        
+        # Calcular RMSE para regresión
+        if model_type == 'regression' and 'mse_mean' in results:
+            results['rmse_mean'] = float(np.sqrt(results['mse_mean']))
+            results['rmse_std'] = float(np.sqrt(results['mse_std']))
+        
+        return results
+        
+    except Exception as e:
+        return {
+            'error': str(e),
+            'cv_folds': cv,
+            'n_samples': len(y)
+        }
+
+def print_evaluation_report(metrics: Dict[str, Any], model_type: str = 'regression'):
+    """
+    Imprime un reporte formateado de las métricas de evaluación.
+    
+    Args:
+        metrics: Diccionario con métricas de evaluación
+        model_type: 'regression' o 'classification'
+    """
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print(f"Reporte de Evaluación: {metrics.get('model_name', 'Modelo')}")
+    print("=" * 60)
+    
+    if 'error' in metrics:
+        print(f"ERROR: {metrics['error']}")
+        return
+    
+    print(f"Muestras de prueba: {metrics.get('n_samples', 'N/A')}")
+    print("-" * 60)
+    
+    if model_type == 'regression':
+        print(f"MAE (Error Absoluto Medio):        {metrics.get('mae', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        print(f"RMSE (Raíz del Error Cuadrático): {metrics.get('rmse', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        print(f"R² (Coeficiente de Determinación): {metrics.get('r2', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        if metrics.get('mape') is not None:
+            print(f"MAPE (Error Porcentual Medio):     {metrics.get('mape', 'N/A'):.2f}%")
+    
+    elif model_type == 'classification':
+        print(f"Exactitud (Accuracy):  {metrics.get('accuracy', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        print(f"Precisión (Precision): {metrics.get('precision', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        print(f"Recall:                {metrics.get('recall', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        print(f"F1-Score:              {metrics.get('f1_score', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        if 'auc_roc' in metrics:
+            print(f"AUC-ROC:               {metrics.get('auc_roc', 'N/A'):.4f}")
+        
+        if 'confusion_matrix' in metrics:
+            print("\nMatriz de Confusión:")
+            cm = np.array(metrics['confusion_matrix'])
+            print(cm)
+    
+    print("=" * 60)

src/models_train.py

@@ -1,35 +1,91 @@
 import xgboost as xgb
 
 def train_demand_model(df):
+    """
+    Entrena modelo de demanda con XGBoost mejorado.
+    Incluye early stopping y mejores hiperparámetros.
+    """
+    from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
+    
     df["h3_int"] = df["h3"].apply(lambda x: int(x, 16))
 
     X = df[["h3_int", "week", "dow", "hour"]]
     y = df["total_events"]
-
-    model = xgb.XGBRegressor(
-        n_estimators=300,
-        max_depth=8,
-        learning_rate=0.05,
-        objective="reg:squarederror"
+    
+    # Dividir en train y validation para early stopping
+    X_train, X_val, y_train, y_val = train_test_split(
+        X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42
     )
 
-    model.fit(X, y)
+    model = xgb.XGBRegressor(
+        n_estimators=500,
+        max_depth=8,
+        learning_rate=0.05,
+        subsample=0.8,
+        colsample_bytree=0.8,
+        gamma=0.1,  # Regularización mínima de ganancia
+        min_child_weight=3,  # Prevenir overfitting
+        reg_alpha=0.1,  # Regularización L1
+        reg_lambda=1.0,  # Regularización L2
+        objective="reg:squarederror",
+        random_state=42,
+        n_jobs=-1
+    )
+
+    model.fit(
+        X_train, y_train,
+        eval_set=[(X_val, y_val)],
+        early_stopping_rounds=50,
+        verbose=False
+    )
+    
     return model
 
 def train_nulo_model(df):
+    """
+    Entrena modelo de nulos con XGBoost mejorado.
+    Incluye manejo de desbalance de clases y early stopping.
+    """
+    from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
+    import numpy as np
+    
     df["h3_int"] = df["h3"].apply(lambda x: int(x, 16))
 
     X = df[["h3_int", "week", "dow", "hour"]]
     y = (df["nulo_rate"] > 0).astype(int)
+    
+    # Dividir en train y validation
+    X_train, X_val, y_train, y_val = train_test_split(
+        X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42, stratify=y
+    )
+    
+    # Calcular peso para balancear clases
+    scale_pos_weight = (y_train == 0).sum() / (y_train == 1).sum()
 
     model = xgb.XGBClassifier(
-        n_estimators=200,
-        max_depth=5,
+        n_estimators=300,
+        max_depth=6,
         learning_rate=0.1,
-        eval_metric="logloss"
+        subsample=0.8,
+        colsample_bytree=0.8,
+        gamma=0.1,
+        min_child_weight=3,
+        reg_alpha=0.1,  # Regularización L1
+        reg_lambda=1.0,  # Regularización L2
+        scale_pos_weight=scale_pos_weight,  # Balancear clases
+        eval_metric="logloss",
+        use_label_encoder=False,
+        random_state=42,
+        n_jobs=-1
     )
 
-    model.fit(X, y)
+    model.fit(
+        X_train, y_train,
+        eval_set=[(X_val, y_val)],
+        early_stopping_rounds=30,
+        verbose=False
+    )
+    
     return model
 
 def train_legacy_model(df):
@@ -94,4 +150,121 @@ def train_custom_nulo_model(df):
     )
     
     model.fit(X, y)
+    return model
+
+def train_demand_model_advanced(df):
+    """
+    Modelo de demanda avanzado con feature engineering y optimización de hiperparámetros.
+    Utiliza técnicas avanzadas de Gradient Boosting.
+    """
+    from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
+    import numpy as np
+    
+    df["h3_int"] = df["h3"].apply(lambda x: int(x, 16))
+    
+    # Feature engineering: crear características adicionales
+    df_features = df.copy()
+    df_features['hour_sin'] = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df_features['hour'] / 24)
+    df_features['hour_cos'] = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df_features['hour'] / 24)
+    df_features['dow_sin'] = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df_features['dow'] / 7)
+    df_features['dow_cos'] = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df_features['dow'] / 7)
+    df_features['is_weekend'] = (df_features['dow'] >= 5).astype(int)
+    df_features['is_rush_hour'] = ((df_features['hour'] >= 7) & (df_features['hour'] <= 9) | 
+                                    (df_features['hour'] >= 17) & (df_features['hour'] <= 19)).astype(int)
+    
+    X = df_features[["h3_int", "week", "dow", "hour", 
+                     "hour_sin", "hour_cos", "dow_sin", "dow_cos",
+                     "is_weekend", "is_rush_hour"]]
+    y = df_features["total_events"]
+    
+    # Dividir con validación
+    X_train, X_val, y_train, y_val = train_test_split(
+        X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42
+    )
+    
+    model = xgb.XGBRegressor(
+        n_estimators=1000,
+        max_depth=10,
+        learning_rate=0.03,
+        subsample=0.85,
+        colsample_bytree=0.85,
+        colsample_bylevel=0.85,
+        gamma=0.2,
+        min_child_weight=5,
+        reg_alpha=0.3,  # Mayor regularización L1
+        reg_lambda=1.5,  # Mayor regularización L2
+        objective="reg:squarederror",
+        tree_method='hist',  # Método más eficiente
+        random_state=42,
+        n_jobs=-1
+    )
+    
+    model.fit(
+        X_train, y_train,
+        eval_set=[(X_train, y_train), (X_val, y_val)],
+        early_stopping_rounds=100,
+        verbose=False
+    )
+    
+    return model
+
+def train_nulo_model_advanced(df):
+    """
+    Modelo de nulos avanzado con feature engineering y optimización.
+    Incluye mejor manejo de desbalance y técnicas de Gradient Boosting avanzadas.
+    """
+    from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, StratifiedKFold
+    import numpy as np
+    
+    df["h3_int"] = df["h3"].apply(lambda x: int(x, 16))
+    
+    # Feature engineering
+    df_features = df.copy()
+    df_features['hour_sin'] = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df_features['hour'] / 24)
+    df_features['hour_cos'] = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df_features['hour'] / 24)
+    df_features['dow_sin'] = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df_features['dow'] / 7)
+    df_features['dow_cos'] = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df_features['dow'] / 7)
+    df_features['is_weekend'] = (df_features['dow'] >= 5).astype(int)
+    df_features['is_rush_hour'] = ((df_features['hour'] >= 7) & (df_features['hour'] <= 9) | 
+                                    (df_features['hour'] >= 17) & (df_features['hour'] <= 19)).astype(int)
+    
+    X = df_features[["h3_int", "week", "dow", "hour",
+                     "hour_sin", "hour_cos", "dow_sin", "dow_cos",
+                     "is_weekend", "is_rush_hour"]]
+    y = (df_features["nulo_rate"] > 0).astype(int)
+    
+    # Dividir con estratificación
+    X_train, X_val, y_train, y_val = train_test_split(
+        X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42, stratify=y
+    )
+    
+    # Calcular peso para balancear clases
+    scale_pos_weight = (y_train == 0).sum() / (y_train == 1).sum()
+    
+    model = xgb.XGBClassifier(
+        n_estimators=500,
+        max_depth=8,
+        learning_rate=0.05,
+        subsample=0.85,
+        colsample_bytree=0.85,
+        colsample_bylevel=0.85,
+        gamma=0.2,
+        min_child_weight=5,
+        reg_alpha=0.3,
+        reg_lambda=1.5,
+        scale_pos_weight=scale_pos_weight,
+        eval_metric="logloss",
+        use_label_encoder=False,
+        tree_method='hist',
+        random_state=42,
+        n_jobs=-1
+    )
+    
+    model.fit(
+        X_train, y_train,
+        eval_set=[(X_train, y_train), (X_val, y_val)],
+        early_stopping_rounds=50,
+        verbose=False
+    )
+    
     return model